📰 Will the Market Turn Bullish Again?
💎 Apple Could PUMP AI Tokens Today!
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💭 Patience Will Pay Off!
Good Morning Degens,
This is the fifth and BIGGEST dip we have seen during this bull market…
And it’s a good thing!
As long as you believe this is actually a bull market that is. Here’s the thing, we might actually be bottoming. It surely feels like it. And it’s all thanks to a small shift in sentiment that came after Jerome Powell’s speech yesterday.
Let’s dive in!
🌍 Market Catch-Up
Top 100 coins Daily Performance - Banter Bubbles
📰 Question of the Day
Will the Market Turn Bullish Again?
Look at that beautiful Fear and Greed index resetting the market! It’s now at 43, in Fear! That’s what we want to see, greed dissipate as fear rises. Then we buy! Sentiment seems to be changing. The markets look a little healthier today than yesterday. And it’s thanks to Jerome Powell’s speech.
What happened?
Yesterday’s FOMC meeting was probably the most important one in recent history, since it was the first one since we got really bad economic data (PPI, CPI). We knew the rates would probably be unchanged (as they were), so everything depended on the overall tone of Jerome Powells speech. Would he be hawkish or dovish?
Well, Jerome Powell took everything in a good way it seemed. He was super dovish (in perspective). Here’s a summary of what he said. Pay close attention to number 1 and 3 combined:
They are not happy with the current inflation stats, but the next move will likely not be a hike.
BULLISH!
So why isn’t the market ripping?
Give it some time!
The Fed/Powell speeches usually see fake-outs to trap traders, and that’s kinda what happened yesterday too. Nearly every risk-on asset was up around 3,5% during his speech. But the SP 500 and Nasdaq ended up closing negative. The move was mostly vanished after his speech, but overall we are not in a bad place right now. It feels like we are nearing the bottom.
Sure, Bitcoin got rejected from the $59k level and it may range here for a while like we discussed yesterday (after the whole “Sell in May and go away” thesis), but:
The funding rates are now negative
Open Interest (OI) is down 40% from its highs, meaning contracts have been closed (both longs and shorts), so the market is cooling.
The CME OI is also down.
But the best metric is this one:
We got around $500m of outlfows from the ETFs yesterday! Why is that good you ask? Well, the $1 billion inflows day marked the top. So, our researchers have been waiting for the opposite to happen to potentially mark the bottom. This could be it.
Funnily enough, as all ETF buyers are now in the red, they can start saying that they are in it for the tech!
Thoughts
I’m bullish. The only issue right now is that that fear index needs to fully reset. There are still people saying “go all in”, which is concerning. We need real fear. But it sure feels like we are bottoming. Maybe we’ll set our limit orders in places people can’t imagine prices will go, just in case we get some wicks down!
💎 Degens’ Den
AI x Apple Earnings
Apple (AAPL) earnings are today at 2:00 p.m. PT / 5:00 p.m. ET. All eyes will be on the world's biggest company during it, but maybe not so much to hear about the results rather than to see if anything is mentioned regarding AI.
We know that the company is going all-in on AI, with generative AI features coming soon to Apple software.
Why does this matter?
If Apple starts talking about major AI funding - you know, something like Apple CEO Tim Cook saying “We are investing $20 billion into AI” - you can bet your ass the crypto AI coins will pump.
What’s super important to note here is that when Apple comes to the party, they come in style. There is no way that any announcement will be small. It makes you question what’s been cooking in the background? Since they scraped an actual car for AI, their next venture into AI could be insane! We know that Render (RNDR) has already pumped a few times during Apple calls. Today could be the same.
Also, any sustained rise in AI token prices right now could bleed in to the Nvidia (NVDA) earnings call on the 22nd of May. If both events are bullish, we could see the AI tokens pump hard!
Meanwhile, adding fuel to that potential take off, Coinbase earnings are also today which will affect the entire crypto market! The expected Revenue is $1.34B with Earnings Per Share (EPS) expected to come in at $1.05.
If all three of these earnings are good, AI could soar!
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🐸 MEMEoirs of a Degen!
A 25% pullback is a bear market for Peter Schiff…!!!
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💭 Banter’s Take
Patience will be rewarded.
If you have been here for years, congratulations! You know what these dips feel like and know how to handle them.
If you have not been around for long, seek out what those who have been are saying. Don’t take their words for granted though, or as financial advice, but simply try to gauge sentiment. And do not believe every single tweet you read on X. People say all sorts of things to gain followers and likes (even dislikes for engagement).
For now, we remain patient, build our thesis (adjusting when necessary), and stay vigilant. Overall, the bottom seems like it is near. But we will also remain grounded and call for lower prices if that’s what we are seeing in the data.
For now, things look good!
See you all tomorrow!
It seems Bullish outlook is persisting. Patience is definitely advised. 💯