🚨 ALERT: Could Today's GDP Destroy Crypto?
Short-Term Pain For The Altcoins?
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📰 Could Today's GDP Destroy Crypto?
💎 Short-Term Pain For The Altcoins?
🐸 MEMEoirs of a Degen!
📢 Biggest Announcements
💭 Banter’s Take
GM Degens,
The U.S. GDP numbers drop in a few hours. Negative data could signal we’re halfway to a recession, but there’s reason to believe that, regardless of the numbers, the outlook for crypto could be bright. We’ll explain why today.
But with Bitcoin on the verge of a massive move, and if it dips, and GDP comes in negative, it could spell trouble for altcoins.
Let’s dive in!
🌍 Market Catch-Up
Top 100 coins Daily Performance - Banter Bubbles
Source: CoinMarketCap
📰 Could Today's GDP Destroy Crypto?
According to our technical analysts, with Bollinger Bands tightening, a big Bitcoin (BTC) move is coming. Bitcoin has been consolidating in a tight $93K–$95.5K range for six days. But its RSI shows a bearish divergence, meaning the move could be down! This would align with the pullback we’ve been expecting after it rallied from $74,000 to $95,000.
Ultimately, you can probably throw technical analysis out the window today, as GDP will overshadow it.
How? Let’s take a look.
Overview
Negative GDP:
Market: Short-term crypto dump; volatility rises; long-term bullish potential
Fed: Likely pauses asset sales, considers rate cuts if inflation cools and jobs weaken.
Rate Cut: High chance, but inflation above 2% may delay.
Positive GDP:
Market: Immediate crypto rise; long term bullish potential
Fed: Holds rates (4.25%-4.5%) unless inflation nears 2% or the economy falters.
Rate Cut: Low chance, barring a sharp inflation drop.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projects a -2.7% growth rate for Q1 2025, down from -2.4%, raising alarms about a possible recession since it would mark the first negative quarter since Q2 2022. Shoppers are pulling back too—consumer spending, which drives 69% of GDP, jumped 4.2% in Q4 2024 but stumbled in January 2025 with only a slight February rebound; March’s PCE is expected to inch up just 0.1%, down from 0.4%, with inflation easing from 2.5% to 2.2% year-over-year. In this tense climate, Bitcoin’s struggling at $94,828.82—down 17% in February—as nervous investors pile into gold, now at $3,500.10 an ounce and up 27% in 2025, fueled by U.S.-China trade friction and a fading dollar.
The Two Scenarios
If GDP contracts, Bitcoin might face a prolonged slump, its volatility and tech-stock ties pushing investors toward gold’s safety even more. But there’s hope: the Federal Reserve could halt asset sales and lower rates from 4.25%-4.5% if inflation softens and jobs falter, eventually reviving riskier assets like crypto as borrowing costs drop, though trade tariffs or high inflation could slow this turnaround.
Now, imagine Q1 2025 GDP turns positive, riding the wave of Q4 2024’s 3.4% growth. Stock markets would surge, and bond yields might nudge higher as optimism spreads. The Fed would likely keep rates steady unless inflation nears 2% or the economy wobbles. Crypto, despite its recent dip, could gain traction on the spot. Still, trade disputes or persistent inflation could cause some turbulence.
So, in reality, both scenarios could favor crypto long term! It’s only short term that we need to worry about.
A negative GDP could spark initial declines and a prolonged slump, but bring Fed rate cuts that might kickstart a resurgence by easing financial pressures. (Could this be the last part of Trump’s plan to get the Fed to cut rates as we have been discussing?)
A positive GDP could fuel immediate market gains.
Whether the economy stumbles or soars, the trajectory could bend upward in the end. And long-term analysis seems to align with that, like Myers’ chart below.
💎 Degens’ Den
Short-Term Pain For The Altcoins?
Ethereum (ETH) is mirroring Bitcoin’s Bollinger Band structure, after having bounced from $1,400 to the $1,750–$1,840 zone. The bands are tightly squeezed, so a massive move could be on the way for Ethereum too.
ETH is building a bullish divergence against BTC.
It seems that whales/institutions are accumulating ETH.
As for altcoins as a whole, the RSI Heatmap shows many altcoins are now entering overbought territory, so a short-term pullback also aligns here.
This raises major concern though: if GDP comes in negative today and big assets drop, smaller assets like altcoins will feel amplified pain. Now is the time to be extremely cautious.
Moustache seems to be confident about altcoins performing well going forward. However, note that Moustache is using a weekly chart. Therefore, this could take some time.
Up eventually, but short-term pain likely!
On a side note, one coin we’re keeping an eye on is another Donald Trump-related project. To be precise, it’s not him personally, but the team behind him. There’s news that President Trump’s Truth Social is exploring launching its own crypto token and wallet. As a businessman, he likes to brand things with his name, so it could be something entirely different from the TRUMP token, with utility specifically for Truth Social. This is one to watch, as the teams behind Trump’s crypto and NFT projects tend to push things hard and incentivize investors to buy and hold.
The Daily Candle
Did you know that Crypto Banter also offers a newsletter featuring our traders’ trading journals?
The Avalanche (AVAX) and Ondo (ONDO) charts look appealing to Sheldon, and he is going long on them soon… Don’t miss it! 👇
🐸 MEMEoirs of a Degen!
📢 Biggest Announcements
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Ethereum ETFs: $18.4M Net Inflows
SEC Delays Franklin XRP Fund ETF Decision, New Deadline Set for June 17, 2025
Solana Leads with 4.3M Daily Active Users
Base Sees Explosive Growth with 112K New Tokens Launched Last Week
💭 Banter’s Take
Pay attention today. Those in it for the short term are the most exposed, but those in it for the long run might find massive opportunities if GDP comes in negative and crypto drops.
See you all tomorrow!