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📰 Have Global Tensions Killed The Bull Run?
💎 Which Alts Are Leading The Bounce Back?
💥 Must Read GCR Thread: One of the Best Traders to Date?
📢 Solana Releases Update, Largest German Federal Bank Offers Crypto Services
💭 The Great Reset!
Good Morning Degens,
Wow. What a weekend!
My thoughts go out to anyone affected by the conflict in the Middle East. On Friday, as soon as news of the conflict hit us, we started seeing prices crash. And they plummeted hard. But the conflict is not necessarily the reason for the dump.
If you think crypto is done for, I have news for you: The data shows otherwise.
Let’s dive in!
🌍 Market Catch-Up
Top 100 coins Daily Performance - Banter Bubbles
📰 Question of the Day
Have Global Tensions Killed The Bull Run?
Spoiler alert: The Israel-Iran conflict was not the main reason for the dump.
The conflict acted as a reason for an extremely overheated market to correct. If we for example look at the TradFi futures (below), they hardly got affected at all. The conflict showed us the reality of the last few months of bullishness, and how things can’t run too hard or else they collapse.
Here’s a simple chart showing how markets react to major conflicts. Risk-on assets are not affected too much by conflicts in the Middle East in the medium to long-term.
Overall, crypto is standing its ground. Especially when we consider all the hurdles it is currently facing:
Uniswap receiving a Wells notice from the SEC
World War 3 fears looming
Latest US inflation data showing that it will be harder for the Fed to lower rates in 2024
Solana being extremely congested due to the recent surge of memes
But let’s be honest. It was still a big correction!
Bitcoin has experienced the following retraces since the November 2022 bear market bottom (data from Rekt Capital):
-23% (February 2023) lasting 21 days
-21% (April/May 2023) lasting 63 days
-22% (July/September 2023) lasting 63 days
-21% (January 2023) lasting 14 days
-18% (March 2023) lasting 7 days
Nothing has changed in the long term. Our bull-market thesis is still intact:
We didn’t battle through the bear market to reach a new ATH just to crash back down to lows straight away!
BlackRock has said that the US ETF inflows are nowhere near ending, with many sidelined investors still highly interested in them.
The Bitcoin Halving is 4 days away!
Asia is now coming in with its own ETFs.
And most importantly, according to Trader Tardigrade’s chart, Bitcoin is still holding the bullish pennant it has been forming and trading in. And, until it loses it, we should be good!
Meanwhile, many indicators on the charts have also reset. This below makes me extremely bullish!
💎 Degens’ Den
Which Alts Are Leading The Bounce Back?
So, the alts got majorly rekt during this dump.
The TOTAL3 (all crypto excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) has put in a lower low on the charts, which is not good to be honest. However, for those that believe the bull will march on, this could be an interesting time to change to coins that are pumping and showing relative strength.
So, which ones are pumping? Here’s a screenshot of the top 5 from Coinmarketcap.
But, if you simply look at the price change from yesterday to today, it doesn’t say much.
Why?
Because a token may show +69% today, but if it dumped -42% on the correction, it isn’t as strong as a coin that for example is up +40% today but only dumped -10% on the correction. We need to take into account the net change to judge which ones are strong. And the team will be looking at these on the show today, so do not miss out!
Nevertheless, if a portfolio is getting rekt, then it may be time to reconsider one’s choices and switch to “higher quality faster horses” as Alex Krüger puts it.
This is a great list and I agree with it (mostly).
Other than the relative strength of coins, we also need to consider token unlocks.. Let’s look at the stats of the coins that Alex mentions. Pay particular attention to the MC to FDV Ratio:
Solana (SOL)
Market Cap (MC): $69B
Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV): $89B
MC to FDV Ratio: 0.78
Toncoin (TON)
Market Cap (MC): $24B
Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV): $36B
MC to FDV Ratio: 0.68
Worldcoin (WLD)
Market Cap (MC): $958M
Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV): $51B
MC to FDV Ratio: 0.02
Arweave (AR)
Market Cap (MC): $1.8B
Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV): $1.8B
MC to FDV Ratio: 1.0
Bittensor (TAO)
Market Cap (MC): $3.7B
Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV): $11.9B
MC to FDV Ratio: 0.31
The fully diluted valuation shows what the market cap of a coin would be if all the available token supply was already released into the market. If you see a low ratio, it means that there are a lot of coins still waiting to be released. These are usually team and VC coins that are awaiting unlock (not yet vested), as well as coins reserved for project processes (marketing for example).
If you have a ratio of 0.5, it means that half the available token supply is still waiting to be unlocked. If they were unlocked in one instant, it would mean that the price of that coin would drop by 50%. And, when these coins are released slowly into the market, it can suppress any buying pressure and keep the price stagnant. Therefore a long-term investment could become a nightmare.
If most coins have already been released, the closer the ratio will be to 1. Take for example Arweave which has a ratio of 1. This is because all the AR coins are already in circulation.
These are things we need to consider when picking our alts. Price is the last thing we look at, which is why I didn't even bother mentioning prices above.
Watch Ran’s show for more on this today!
💥 Best Alpha Posts of the Day
DWF Deep Dives Into Ordinals and Runes
On the BRCFi narrative, DWF takes a deep dive into the Bitcoin ecosystem, focusing on Ordinals and Runes.
Must Read GCR Thread: One of the Best Traders to Date?
Want to lear a highly profitable trader’s journey and story?
Check out the thread below!
🐸 MEMEoirs of a Degen!
Early Bird Access With Yield App Angel Launchpad
Yield App is our new partner. And I'm blown away by what the team is building. On the surface, Yield App looks like a centralized wealth management app, but in fact, it goes so much deeper than that. And their numbers speak for this!
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But here’s where it gets really interesting…
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📢 Biggest Announcements
Solana Releases Update To Fix Congestion Issues
Largest German Federal Bank LBBW to Offer Crypto Custody Services to Institutional Customers
💭 Banter’s Take
Burniske says it nicely below. If the Israel-Iran conflict de-escalates (and hopefully it does for the sake of the people), the fact that the market reset in the interim is a great starting point going into the Bitcoin Halving - a real key moment in the bull run!
Oh, and here’s today’s secret code for the Win An ETH draw: CBAVWNQY
See you all tomorrow!
nice job, great info