Is this the beginning of the end for crypto in the US? + Big players say the bull market is here!
Overview
Experts call it the start of the bull run!
Markets: BTC weekly chart enters “death cross” for the first time in history.
Will the SEC outlaw staking for US retail investors?
Microsoft to integrate ChatGPT in the Bing search engine.
Good Morning Banter Fam,
I bet you're wondering if the current bull trend will continue. Will the Fed pivot soon, or will inflation come roaring back and put a damper on the party? Well, it's nearly impossible to predict these kinds of things. So the best we can do is analyze the data and make an educated prediction.
That's exactly how the experts approach these situations. And lo and behold, two major players in the space are calling the start of a much larger trend. So, who are they, and what did they have to say?
Let’s explore.
Pantera Capital
One of the most successful crypto investment firms, Pantera Capital, released its monthly blockchain letter and appropriately titled it "The Seventh Bull Cycle." While the letter reflected on more detailed aspects of the cryptoverse, like rebuilding trust in centralized finance (CeFi) and consumer applications for blockchain, it became particularly interesting when it covered Bitcoin price cycles.
CEO Dan Morehead states that Bitcoin is entering a major bull cycle. Here's what he had to say:
"Pantera has been through ten years of bitcoin cycles, and I've traded through 35 years of similar cycles. I believe that blockchain assets have seen the lows and that we're in the next bull market cycle – regardless of what happens in the interest-rate-sensitive asset classes."
Dan Morehead, Pantera Capital Blockchain Letter February 2023
Source: Pantera Capital Blockchain Letter
Arthur Hayes
Arthur Hayes is the former CEO of crypto-exchange BitMEX and an avid crypto writer, entrepreneur, and whale-sized investor. Yesterday he released "Be Present", an article laying out his plans (in steps) for the current market:
“Step 1: Correct Thought
I can’t always wait for the perfect setup. It’s time to get in while the getting is good.
Step 2: Raise Cash
I moved the portion of my liquid fiat money that I’m comfortable risking out of money market funds / short-term US Treasury bills and into USD cash, which I can then deploy quickly into the risk assets of my choosing.
Step 3: Buy Bitcoin
I’ll deploy over the coming days. I wish my size actually mattered, but it doesn’t — so please don’t think that when this happens, it will have any discernible effect on the price of the orange coin.
Step 4: Let’s Go Shitcoining
I believe there’s currently a narrative taking hold that is inspiring a lot of copy-pasta piles of shit to launch. I will give you guys an update on my thesis on this sector of dog shit once I have done a bit more research — but if Bitcoin and Ether continue to rally, there will definitely be a shitcoin vertical that goes bananas over the next few months.
The key to shitcoining is understanding they go up and down in waves. First the crypto reserve assets rally — that is, Bitcoin and Ether. The rally in these stalwarts eventually stalls, and then prices fall slightly. At the same time, the shitcoin complex stages an aggressive rally. Then shitcoins rediscover gravity, and interest shifts back to Bitcoin and Ether. And this stair-stepping process continues until the secular bull market ends.
Step 5: The Unwind
When the TGA hits zero, get out of the market. At this point, I have to sell everything that I bought from now until then, no questions asked. I must avoid falling in love with the piles of shit I own, and instead be a cold, hard market operator.
Of course, there could be some global political event that would spark a risk-off movement. I have a few in mind, and am currently noodling on how significant of an impact they could have on the price of Bitcoin should they come to bear. When I’ve thought those all the way through, expect a detailed essay relaying my findings.”
Arthur Hayes, “Be Present”
Market update 🌍
BTC/USDT 1W
Many technical analysts have pointed out that BTC is entering a "death cross" on the weekly charts for the first time in history. A "death cross" is when the 50-week moving average crosses the 200-week moving average and forecasts strong sell-side price action in stocks. Moreover, the stochastic RSI has entered an overbought range, indicating further downside. Since there are no historical records to lean on, we'll have to watch how BTC reacts to such an occurrence. BTC completed the daily candle down -1.19% to $22,963.
High-resolution chart.
Newswatch 📰
SEC to ban crypto staking? Brian Armstrong, CEO and co-founder of cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, took to Twitter to express his opposition to the potential ban of retail crypto staking in the United States by the country's regulators. In a Twitter thread, Armstrong stated that he had heard rumors about the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's intention to get rid of crypto staking for retail customers. He called it a "terrible" move and emphasized the importance of staking in crypto, as it brings scalability, increased security, and reduced carbon footprints. Armstrong did not reveal the source of the rumors, but he made it clear that he hopes the regulators do not proceed with the ban.
Kraken facing SEC probe for selling unregistered securities. Kraken is being investigated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for alleged violation of securities rules regarding offerings to American customers. The probe is reportedly at an advanced stage and a settlement could be reached in the coming days. The specific tokens or offerings under scrutiny have not been made public.
Microsoft to integrate ChatGPT into Bing search engine. According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Microsoft plans to integrate ChatGPT into Bing. For Microsoft, the integration is a chance to rekindle the search engine wars long dominated by Google Search. On the other hand, Google plans to release a ChatGPT competitor titled Bard.
News tidbits:
Andre Cronje tells the truth about crypto AI.
Binance to temporarily suspend USD bank transfers.
Chiliz announces rebrand and genesis block of L1 EVM-Compatible Chiliz blockchain.
Aptos Labs backs web3 TikTok rival Chingari.
NFT & metaverse update 🐵
Saudi Arabia and The Sandbox (SAND) agree to collaborate on metaverse projects.
Blur NFT marketplace outpaces OpenSea volume ahead of token drop.
Banter’s take
So, Pantera Capital and Arthur Hayes, seasoned experts in the financial market, are calling the long-awaited bull run. But, keep in mind the market is prone to sudden shifts and unexpected moves, particularly in the hands of the Federal Reserve and the US government (regulations and default fears). But, despite these challenges, the sharp investor will navigate the obstacles and emerge with sizable returns.
So, stay focused and watch our main shows for more updates and Alpha!
Until tomorrow!
Gabriel
Follow me on Twitter for daily updates!