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đ° Will Crypto Bottom On This Date?
đ Altcoins: On the Brink or Just a Fading Signal?
đ¸ MEMEoirs of a Degen!
đ˘ Biggest Announcements
đ Banterâs Take
GM Degens,
September seasonality is upon us, and things are not looking too good for Bitcoinâat least in the short term. However, Q4 tends to be very strong, as we've seen in previous years.
Today, we're going to explore this a little further, while also looking at some signs as to whether an altcoinrally is likely to come to fruition or if it was simply forced hope that wasn't backed by data.
Letâs dive in!
đ Market Catch-Up
Top 100 coins Daily Performance - Banter Bubbles
Source: CoinMarketCap
đ° Question of the Day
Will Crypto Bottom On This Date?
September seasonality is officially here, and if history has taught us anything, itâs that this is typically the weakest month for Bitcoin and crypto on average overall. Almost every cycle, markets tend to bleed through August and September before gearing up for a strong Q4 rally.
Now, the game plan is all about managing risk and hedging to stay protected through the volatility ahead. Speaking of volatility, the VIX is currently low, but seasonality tells us that it usually spikes in September. That aligns perfectly with the historical weak performance of risk assets this time of year. Equities arenât immune either; the S&P and Nasdaq are heading into their weakest seasonal stretch, where underperformance is the norm.
Interestingly, while crypto and stocks often struggle, gold tends to buck the trend. Historically, September is actually the second-best month of the year for gold, which could provide a safe haven for investors as uncertainty rises.
Final Thoughts
Thereâs a good chance we hit the bottom around September 17th. Thatâs when the Fed announces its next interest rate decision, and right now, the odds of a 25 basis point cut stand at 86%.
If that cut happens, it could inject fresh liquidity into the markets and potentially extend the rally into the final quarter of the year-aligning with Q4 bullishness. So this date is one to watch closelyâbecause it could mark the turning point from weakness into renewed strength as we head toward year-end.
đ Degensâ Den
Altcoins: On the Brink or Just a Fading Signal?
Letâs talk about what just happened with the OTHERS/BTC pair â weâre seeing a golden cross. For those who donât know, a golden cross is a classic bullish signal where a shorter-term moving average crosses above a longer-term moving average, usually signaling potential strong upward momentum. But whatâs really interesting here is the context.
Historically, in each cycle, weâve seen about three of these golden crosses, and this latest one looks like the third. Sounds promising, right? Well, not quite. Not all golden crosses are created equal. The recent ones havenât been as effective or lucrative as the earlier ones, and this time around, the altcoins arenât riding that wave like before. Back in the previous cycles, the first two golden crosses kicked off big altcoin rallies against Bitcoin. This time, altcoins are still bleeding while Bitcoin is benefiting from all the inflows coming from ETFs and institutional money. Ethereum (ETH) has also managed to squeeze out some green candles lately, riding its own momentum push from ETFs and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs), but the rest of the alts are struggling for the most part.
So, the big question remains: Are the altcoins going to need the same kind of institutional momentum, or could there be other catalysts that finally spark that long-awaited altseason? Well, looking deeper, the data shows some interesting stuff with altcoins against Ethereum â theyâre at historically oversold levels.
Thatâs kind of a good sign because altcoins generally outperform after hitting these lows. But the not-so-great part? If history repeats itself, they could still dip a bit more before making that bounce.
And when we check BTC dominanceâhow much of the total crypto market Bitcoin controlsâthere's often a seasonal pattern where dominance starts rising around September. It doesnât mean itâs the start of a big trend every time; sometimes itâs just a temporary rise before falling again.
On top of that, thereâs a bearish MACD crossover on Bitcoin dominance in the monthly timeframe, which happened once before and was followed by a last push up in Bitcoin dominance before it dropped sharply. So, we might see one more leg up in Bitcoin dominance before things shift down.
Final Thoughts
All this sets the stage for a possible scenario: a short-term boost for Bitcoin dominance could delay altcoin gains a bit more, but eventually, conditions might align for altcoins to shine again!
đ¸ MEMEoirs of a Degen!
đ Banterâs Take
So yeah, overall, it looks like the bull market is still intact, while there has been a lot happening in the background, such as the launch of World Liberty Financial (WLFI) today.
Next, it seems that Bitcoin dominance might rise a bit, including the Bitcoin price, but this could be the last increase before a flush down, which might trigger a pump in altcoins, if we go by the charts.
Things might start getting quite interesting in Q4, and quite degen too.
See you all tomorrow!
It is the inevitable and I am wondering when the stock market is gonna go thatâs gonna go before the Crypto goes