MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Adds Fresh Selling Pressure On Bitcoin
MicroStrategy sells 3,588 Bitcoin & governance risks exposed in the $20m BONK DAO attack while AI narratives face pressure as on-chain metrics print new highs.
None of this is financial advice. Do your own research. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept the terms and conditions outlined in our disclaimer.
GM Investors,
Markets are displaying a clear divergence right now. Traditional tech and AI-related assets are facing renewed selling pressure. At the same time, on-chain infrastructure continues to show meaningful progress, with Solana card payments hitting record levels, Monad’s TVL reaching a new high, and prediction market volume printing fresh all-time highs.
Bitcoin ETF flows have also turned positive again, suggesting some institutional buyers are stepping back in. Against this backdrop, MicroStrategy’s recent Bitcoin sale and the broader questions around AI monetization are forcing investors to reassess which parts of the market actually have durable support.
Our latest research highlights a market that is no longer moving in one clean direction. Instead, capital appears to be rotating selectively away from overhyped AI narratives and toward areas with clearer usage or structural support. This environment demands precision rather than broad conviction.
While macro stays heavy, the FIFA World Cup is offering a fun way to stay active in markets ⚽️🏆!!!
Mbappé Leads Golden Boot Market While Haaland Offers Value on Rain Trade
Kylian Mbappé is currently the clear favourite to win the Golden Boot at 48.5% on Rain Trade, followed by Lionel Messi at 33.5%, with Erling Haaland sitting at 16.5%.
While Mbappé remains the market’s top pick, we see real value in backing both Mbappé and Haaland depending on the price.
Here’s what we’re watching:
Mbappé remains in excellent form and is playing in a France side expected to go deep in the tournament, keeping him as the frontrunner
Haaland at 16.5% offers attractive odds if Norway can navigate a favorable group and he stays fit throughout the knockout stages
Short-term football markets on Rain Trade are offering clean execution and tight spreads during the current crypto lull
Rain Trade is seeing solid volume on these World Cup player props, with good liquidity across the Golden Boot market. We like the setup on both Mbappé and Haaland at current levels.
📻 Sneak Peak Recording
Onchain TVL vs. RWA Growth & DAO Governance Exploits → 247 Research Call: The team analyzed the stagnation of standard crypto TVL, noting it is heavily down over the last four years when adjusted for inflation, while Real World Asset (RWA) and stablecoin TVL have seen parabolic growth.
MicroStrategy Tests the Limits of Corporate Bitcoin Strategy
Michael Saylor’s recent sale of Bitcoin drew immediate attention, with many interpreting it as selling near local lows. MSTR stock initially dropped around 5% at the open but recovered within minutes and is now trading back above 1x NAV. The quick reversal shows that the market is still primarily treating MSTR as a leveraged Bitcoin vehicle rather than a traditional software company.
MSTR has been executing a clear strategy of using Bitcoin when the stock is trading below NAV and issuing shares when it trades above NAV. This approach creates a self-reinforcing loop, when Bitcoin rises and MSTR trades at a premium, the company can raise capital by issuing equity to buy more Bitcoin, which can further support the price. Conversely, when Bitcoin falls and MSTR trades at a discount, the company can sell Bitcoin to manage its balance sheet.
This dynamic has the potential to amplify moves in both directions. The recent Bitcoin sale fits into this broader pattern, where MSTR adjusts its holdings based on the relationship between its stock price and Bitcoin’s value. While the initial market reaction was negative, the swift recovery above 1x NAV suggests investors continue to view MSTR primarily through the lens of its Bitcoin holdings.
While Bitcoin-linked corporate plays face short-term volatility, another major market narrative, “AI” is also encountering growing skepticism, as questions around profitability and business models become harder to ignore.
AI Narrative Faces Growing Fundamental Questions
The pressure on AI-related assets has become more noticeable in recent sessions. Currently NASDAQ futures are down around 1.1%, while Samsung’s stock fell yesterday despite reporting a massive 19x year-on-year increase in operating profits. The market’s reaction appeared to be driven more by profit-taking and concerns around potential oversupply in semiconductors than by the strong headline numbers.
More broadly, questions around AI business model sustainability are starting to surface. Here’s what stood out during our discussion:
Meta is reportedly pivoting toward selling compute capacity, as monetizing its own models has proven more difficult than expected.
There is growing corporate interest in localized and private AI models, as companies look to protect proprietary data instead of feeding it into public models from OpenAI or Anthropic.
OpenAI’s reported quarterly losses of around $25 - 26 billion, along with delays to its IPO, are adding to concerns about the sector’s near-term growth trajectory.
These developments suggest the market is beginning to differentiate between parts of the AI stack that can generate real returns and those that remain largely narrative-driven.
As traditional tech and AI narratives face increasing pressure, parts of the crypto ecosystem are showing a different picture, with several on-chain metrics continuing to expand even as broader risk assets remain cautious.
Saylor Bitcoin Sale Adds Fresh Downside Pressure as July Lows Heat Up on Rain Trade
MicroStrategy’s sale of $216 million worth of Bitcoin to pay dividends has introduced fresh selling pressure into the market. On Rain Trade, the probability of Bitcoin hitting $62,500 in July currently sits at 92%, while the chance of reaching $65,000 stands at 77%.
We believe Bitcoin is likely to see further downside in the near term as this large corporate sale adds to existing selling pressure.
Here’s what we’re watching:
MSTR’s decision to sell Bitcoin to fund dividend payments marks a notable shift and could trigger further liquidation pressure in the short term
Rain Trade is currently pricing a very high probability of Bitcoin testing lower levels in July, with the $62,500 and $65,000 marks heavily favored
Crypto prediction markets on Rain Trade are offering strong liquidity and fast execution during the current market environment
Rain Trade continues to see solid volume on these Bitcoin price level markets. We see the setup leaning toward further downside in BTC over the coming weeks.
Rain Trade
On-Chain Infrastructure Continues to Expand
While traditional tech faces pressure, several on-chain metrics are showing clear signs of progress. Card payments on Solana have reached record adoption levels, reflecting real usage growth beyond pure speculation. Monad’s TVL recently hit a new all-time high of $477 million, while prediction market volume across the sector also printed a fresh record.
Here are the key developments we’re tracking:
Bitcoin ETF flows have turned positive again after a period of outflows, with buyers stepping in even as broader risk appetite remains cautious.
RWA (Real World Assets) TVL continues to grow at a faster pace than standard crypto TVL when adjusted for inflation, highlighting the increasing role of institutional and real-world use cases.
Projects like Synapse are attracting attention after pivoting toward “Hypercool,” an on-chain options platform built on Hyperliquid, with Arthur Hayes recently adding exposure. Synapse is printing a textbook falling wedge formation after an extended pullback. Buyers are defending support, and momentum is beginning to compress; a classic setup that often signals a bullish reversal if resistance breaks.
Sui’s TVL has spiked meaningfully and reportedly overtaken Monad, while Pod has delivered strong performance (up over 260% in the past 40 days). In contrast, Venice has struggled, showing the negative correlation between certain AI-related tokens during this period of sector reassessment.
These metrics suggest that while price action remains mixed, the underlying infrastructure and usage layer of crypto continues to build in select areas.
However, even as on-chain activity grows, recent events have exposed clear vulnerabilities within decentralized governance systems vulnerabilities that can be exploited when large treasuries are placed under token-holder control.
On-Chain Governance Risks Exposed by BONK DAO Attack
A recent exploit on the BONK DAO has highlighted the vulnerabilities that can arise when large treasuries are governed purely through on-chain token voting. Late on Monday, the BONK DAO was drained of approximately $20 million after an attacker spent around $4.4 million acquiring enough tokens to pass a governance proposal.
Our research into the incident shows that every step taken by the attacker was technically legitimate. They acquired the necessary tokens on exchanges like Bybit and Binance, borrowed additional tokens through DeFi lending platforms, and submitted a proposal to transfer the treasury to their own wallet. The proposal only required a quorum of 1% of BONK’s total supply to pass. With very low voter turnout of just 2.9%, the attacker was able to meet the threshold with a narrow margin and execute the transfer automatically on-chain.
This event serves as a stark reminder that on-chain governance, while theoretically decentralized, can be exploited when token distribution is concentrated and participation remains low. The attack did not involve any smart contract vulnerability it simply weaponized the governance mechanism itself. As more projects place significant treasuries under token-holder control, the risk of similar governance attacks is likely to increase.
Poll of the Day (Powered by Rain Trade) 🎯
🌍 Market Catch-Up
Top 100 coins Daily Performance - Banter Bubbles
Banter Bubbles are showing mixed signals as Bitcoin-related names remain resilient despite recent volatility, while attention is shifting toward AI infrastructure, RWA projects, and select DeFi opportunities. Governance and security have also moved back into focus following the recent BONK DAO treasury exploit, reminding traders of the risks tied to inactive governance systems.
🐸 MEMEoirs of a Degen!
💭 Banter’s Take
The market is no longer offering easy beta exposure. AI-related narratives are being re-priced, traditional tech faces margin pressure, and even Bitcoin treasury plays like MSTR are experiencing short-term volatility around corporate decisions.
At the same time, we are seeing pockets of genuine progress in on-chain infrastructure, real-world asset adoption, and selective altcoin setups with near-term catalysts. However, the BONK DAO exploit serves as an important reminder that on-chain governance still carries significant risks when treasuries are exposed to low-turnout token votes.
Our research suggests this is a market that rewards precision over conviction. Capital is rotating, but it is doing so selectively toward areas with clearer usage, structural support, or upcoming events rather than broad narratives. We continue to focus on high-conviction setups with defined risk while staying nimble around macro and political developments that could shift sentiment quickly.
In an environment where political noise is high but actual liquidity and conviction remain low, having the right execution tools matters more than ever. That’s why we’ve partnered with Rain Trade; a platform built for traders who need speed, precision, and clean betting odds in volatile conditions like these.
None of this is financial advice.
Do your own research.
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