💥 Great Depression 2.0: Worst Case Scenario For Crypto?
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📰 Great Depression 2.0: Worst Case Scenario For Crypto?
💎 Altcoins Feeling The Pain! No End In Sight?
🐸 MEMEoirs of a Degen!
📢 Biggest Announcements
💭 Banter’s Take
GM Degens,
People are confused about this entire situation, and many expect the worst to have come and gone as of yesterday. What is the worst-case scenario? Nothing is guaranteed, and things could go south. If they do, they could end up extremely bad. How bad?
Let’s dive in!
🌍 Market Catch-Up
Top 100 coins Daily Performance - Banter Bubbles
Source: CoinMarketCap
📰 News of the Day
Great Depression 2.0: Worst Case Scenario For Crypto?
We said volatility was going to be rampant yesterday, and it sure was, with Bitcoin (BTC) hitting a high around $88,500 before dropping to a low around $82,300. The total crypto market cap dropped over 3%, losing billions, with liquidations affecting over 155,000 trades and totalling $486 million, according to Coinglass data.
This volatility is largely attributed to the tariffs announced yesterday. Ahead of the news, S&P 500 futures rallied, only to plummet after the announcement, erasing a reported $2 trillion of market cap in under 15 minutes. Meanwhile, gold quietly climbed higher (*Peter Schiff grins in the background). This has sparked recession fears, with odds on Polymarket rising to 50%.
President Trump announced tariffs on multiple countries in one sweeping move, dubbed the largest tariff day in history. A major highlight is China facing a 54% tariff—34% on top of the existing 20%.
There are two views on what happens next: one side is hopeful, while the other is deeply bearish. Let’s break down both perspectives, starting with the bullish side.
The Bullish Side
This could be the peak of the tariffs, as Treasury Secretary Bessent hinted a few days ago. The theory is that if these are the highest tariffs we’ll see, countries might now negotiate among themselves to lower them, improving conditions from here. If this plays out, markets could feel a sense of relief, and sentiment might brighten.
Ivan On Tech believes this could mark an upward turn. High tariffs might ultimately force a freer trade market as negotiations bring tariff rates closer to 0% across the board. But, as we always say, it’s important to consider both sides—so let’s move to the bearish perspective, which some of you might not enjoy hearing. It’s grim, but just a hypothetical scenario. As usual, none of this is financial advice, and you all need to do your own research.
The Bearish Side
Nothing is guaranteed in markets, and things could go south. What if countries retaliate in the long run, and this spirals out of control?
Historical evidence, like the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, shows that escalation can worsen trade rather than force openness. It’s a gamble—cooperation isn’t assured.
“The Smoot-Hawley tariff was meant to boost farm incomes by reducing foreign competition in agricultural products. But other countries followed suit, both in retaliation and in an attempt to force a correction of trade imbalances.” - Britannica
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act ‘slightly’ backfired when other countries retaliated with their own tariffs, cratering global trade during the Great Depression. Think of it as a trade war trigger that deepened an already bad economy.
"The Great Depression" spanned roughly from 1929 to the late 1930s globally. During this period, major markets saw steep declines: the U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 89% from its 1929 peak to its 1932 low; the UK’s stock market fell about 50% by 1933; Germany’s market crashed over 60% by 1932; and France’s market declined roughly 55% from 1929 to 1936.
Crypto, as the newest asset class, could get obliterated in this scenario if it remains as reactive to traditional stock markets as it has been so far. If the Dow dropped 89%, where do you think the crypto total market cap would end up?
We just saw Bitcoin rejected at its 50- and 200-day moving averages. According to many technical analysts, the next support level sits around $65,000–$71,000.
But it’s not all doom and gloom. Yesterday, we saw Bitcoin’s hash rate and difficulty increasing exponentially—something many view as a positive indicator. And we are also getting first signs of certain countries willing to drop tariffs if the US does too.
What do you think?
💎 Degens’ Den
Altcoins Feeling The Pain! No End In Sight?
Okay, here’s the real talk.
The total crypto market cap is down over 3%, having lost billions as we mentioned earlier. At the same time, over 1.15 million new tokens were launched on Solana (SOL) in March alone. If you do the math, this suggests liquidity is being diluted across the board. This is one reason many believe that even if an "altseason" arrives, it won’t resemble past cycles where most altcoins rose together as liquidity shifted from Bitcoin.
Typically, Ethereum (ETH) leads in such events. Yesterday, we looked at on-chain transaction volume, and it seems Ethereum gas fees are now at their lowest since mid-2020.
One major development: PayPal expanded its crypto offerings by adding Solana (SOL) and Chainlink (LINK) for U.S. customers. This follows PayPal’s 2024 integration of its PYUSD stablecoin on Solana.
Arguably the biggest announcement came from Sony. Sony Electronics Singapore partnered with Crypto[dot]com to enable USDC payments on the Sony Store Online—another win for the centralized exchange, and blockchain gaming as a whole. We already saw ‘Off The Grid’ pull off blockchain integration utilising an Avalanche (AVAX) subnet, so this news begs the question: how long until we see more blockchain integration into traditional gaming?
Overall, though, altcoins aren’t thriving. Kyle Doops’ chart of the weekly crypto RSI heatmap shows most coins are in the neutral or weak zone, with an average RSI of 36.42.
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🐸 MEMEoirs of a Degen!
📢 Biggest Announcements
Bitcoin Miners Suffer $6 Billion Loss in Worst Month Ever
Trump to Host Bukele at White House to Explore Mutual Support Strategies
Japan’s SMBC, No. 2 Bank, Plans Stablecoin Launch with Avax Labs
💭 Banter’s Take
Anyone telling you they know what is going to happen is delusional. They cannot know. No one does. That is why seasoned investors say not to invest more than you can afford to lose.
See you all tomorrow!